Interest

The highly liquid market for interest rate futures exhibits seasonal trends. In the process bond market trends should correlate to those of the equity market. Apparently there are seasonally based preferences favoring one market over the other so that, roughly speaking, seasonal trends are reciprocal.

The seasonal trends are relatively only slightly different than those of the spot market. Nevertheless there are differences. Use the futures section charts only for the purpose of analysing futures. Seasonal trends in the futures market can vary from the underlying cash market. The reason is the arbitrage relation between the cash and the futures market. This varies from market to market. A wheat contract for instance can fall below cash market value if a good harvest is expected because there is no physical way to consume the un-harvested grain. But accordingly the cash price of January wheat for example can increase in price while July wheat decreases simultaneously. That’s why only futures market seasonality is applicable to the futures market.






Deutsche Version